Immigration

Pacific Business News had a brief item the other day about a study showing that, "The population of Hawaii is now roughly divided between those who were born here and those who weren't."

It says, "The trend is stronger on neighbor islands. Only 43 percent of Maui residents were born in Hawaii. A sizable chunk of transplants, 39 percent, have been in Hawaii for more than 20 years." (I happen to fit into that category of Maui residents.)

As one friend noted in an email: "Isn't it interesting what Pacific Business News chooses to focus on in this story of haole replacing maoli in Hawaii's population -- what kind of cars are they going to buy?" Of course, it was probably commissioned for marketing purposes and PBN is a business magazine. But the study does note the difference in values between locals and newcomers: "As the reader can appreciate, residents who first move here from other states provide different values; have different behavior patterns, different needs and unique desires." Larger implications than just marketing strategies and choice of cars.

The Hawaii Tourism Authority distributed somewhat more detailed data via email when this study was released, which I have included in the extended entry. The study includes this:

In reviewing the trends, is it possible that the rapid mix change between 1998 and 1995 was not only a result of influx of new residents, but a net result from increased out-migration due to economic pressures. Is it possible that we are on the verge of another such out migration caused by housing costs, and lower paying jobs in Hawaii.

Doug White commented at Poinography.com, wondering why this would be if, as the study noted, Hawaii residents born elsewhere tend to have "household income, education and other financial indicators similar to state averages."

Meanwhile, this reminded me of an article I came across a couple weeks ago, as a sort of interesting juxtaposition, especially given the discussion we've had here of who comprises the Hawaiian national population today. MSNBC article about "A proposal to change long-standing federal policy and deny citizenship to babies born to illegal immigrants on U.S. soil."

“Most Americans feel it doesn’t make any sense for people to come into the country illegally, give birth and have a new U.S. citizen," says one proponent.

Hmm...

In Hawaii, the kingdom pre-occupation had birthright citizenship and a pretty open immigration policy, same as the U.S. Children of immigrants born in the islands were full citizens — except those born to foreign legations, which is a common exception to jus soli. The other common exception, of course, is children born under foreign occupation.

Because of the occupation, it is really bananas and mangos to compare the situations—immigrants to Hawaii from the United States are illegal for an entirely different reason.

I have actually heard the argument on numerous occasions, including from residents who weren't born here, that one of the key factors why they would support independence or believe it is important is that it is the only way Hawaii could have its own immigration and naturalization policy. (The Akaka bill ain't gonna help with that.)

So when I saw these items, I couldn't help wondering, given that Hawaii currently has no control on immigration on its own:

What would Hawaii's immigration policy be today if it were effectively independent?

Data from SMS Research (couple of the graphics didn't seem to work for me)

How local is Local?

The proportion of locally born adults is declining. When SMS first asked the question in 1998, 59% of Hawaii adults said they were born in the Hawaii islands. Today, that percentage is down to 52%.

As can be noted from the graph, we have had some minor shifts from year to year, but the trend has been continuous. And it is changing on some islands more rapidly. As an example, our 2005 data indicates that only 43% of Maui's resident adults were born in Hawaii. More than 37% of Maui's adults were born in another state (compared to a statewide average of 29%).

In reviewing the trends, is it possible that the rapid mix change between 1998 and 1995 was not only a result of influx of new residents, but a net result from increased out-migration due to economic pressures. Is it possible that we are on the verge of another such out migration caused by housing costs, and lower paying jobs in Hawaii.

There are many implications to this demographic shift. Hawaii residents born elsewhere tend to be:

* As expected, primarily Caucasian
* Younger, with an average age of 45 vs. statewide average of 47
* Household income, education and other financial indicators similar to state averages
* Interesting to note that:

* They have been coming to the islands for a long time. As seen on the following table, 39% of these residents have been on the islands for more than 20 years, and have an index of 151 (i.e., the index states that this segment is 51% more likely to have lived here more than 20 years, but not a lifetime when compared to the statewide population)
* However, their pace of arrival has increased in the past 6 years. The average in the past 6 years has been 5% per year. The previous 13 years was only 2% per annum.
* As already indicted, they are more likely to move to Maui, followed by the Island of Hawaii.

As the reader can appreciate, residents who first move here from other states provide different values; have different behavior patterns, different needs and unique desires. As an example, newcomers have a 103 index when it comes to "having fun is the whole point of life" as compared to an index of 77 when answering, "Family is important, but other things are just as important". Lifetime residents tend to answer these questions in the reverse order. Newcomers also travel more to the mainland, more likely to buy American made car than are lifetime Hawaii residents.

Since 1988 the SMS Hawaii Market Study has been Hawaii's primary provider of resident market data to advertisers, advertising agencies and marketers as well as to radio, magazine and television clients. SMS collects and analyzes information on consumer demographics, behavior, product and brand usage, and exposure to all forms of advertising-supported media.

Hawaii's leading marketers and agencies use SMS Hawaii Market Study data for market planning and analysis, strategic planning, target market identification, product launches, line extensions and brand positioning.

The annual study is based on approximately 2,500 completed interviews with a random sample of statewide residents, 18 years or older. The sample provides a sample error of less than 1% at 95% confidence interval. The interviews use a combination of telephone and diary methods. The final sample is statistically balanced to reflect the state's resident population as reported by the U.S. 2000 Census.

Posted: Sat - January 14, 2006 at 12:08 AM

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Immigration

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